Television

Emma Barnett, mediaweek.co.uk, 21 November 2008, 11:15am

TV ad spend to fall 30% by 2010

LONDON - UK TV ad spend is expected to fall by 30% between 2007 and 2010 in real terms, according to a report by Enders Analysis.

Going down: latest Enders survey warns of continuing decline in TV ad spend

The decline is in real terms, which removes the effect of inflation, and is closer to 19% when the changes are measured with inflation included.

By the end of this year, TV ad spend is expected to have fallen to £3.3bn, from £3.5bn last year. By 2009, TV ad spend is predicted to have fallen to £2.9bn and by 2010, to £2.8bn.

Online growth and the appeal of online media, as well as the analogue to digital broadcast shift, are all structural changes cited for the decrease in TV national advertising revenue by Enders.

Further structural change could follow, according to the report, as the funding gap between the BBC and the commercial broadcasters grows, fuelled by poor economic conditions and a gradual shift to more personalised media consumption in the digital age.

TV fared relatively well, though, in comparison to other media sectors, with the compound annual growth rate of total advertising down only 1.8% at the end of a six-year period spanning 2007 to 2013.

Press (print only) over the same period is predicted to be down by 9.3%, radio by 6.1%, cinema by 2.8% and outdoor by 0.6%.

The internet is the only medium expected to show growth, with its compound annual growth rate thought to be up by 10.6% by end of 2013.

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TESS ALPS - 21 November 2008

Mmm. I appreciate I'm coming at this from a very partial position, but could I just make the point that the headline is rather unfair ,and even a tad sensationalist.

The Enders analysis does predict a 1.8% compounded annual decline for TV revenue over the period, but they also predict TV will in fact increase its share of total advertising , and increase its share of display by an even bigger percentage. How come those media with worse forecast revenues don't make the headline?. Journalistic needs aside, the headline does rather dump on TV, doesn't it. In these difficult and jumpy times, we'd be ever so grateful if you didn't do that.