Carat downgrades ad spend growth forecasts for 2011

Aegis Media's Carat has downgraded its global and Western European advertising forecasts today, citing caution sparked by "global macro-economic factors".

Carat: downgrades ad spend growth forecasts for 2011
Carat: downgrades ad spend growth forecasts for 2011

Carat now predicts that global advertising expenditure will grow 5% this year, down from the 5.7% forecast in March 2011, while spend in Western Europe is tipped to be 33% less than previously expected, with previous growth of 3.5% adjusted to just 2.3%.

Reasons behind the downgrade were said to be "natural disasters and political instability in a number of parts of the world", although Carat adds the upbeat note that the new figures nevertheless represent growth, "outperforming the advertising market levels of 2008".

The challenging climate is also expected to have an impact on next year’s Olympic year, with previous global forecasts of 6.2% growth falling to 6% and Western Europe’s 3.3% growth now pegged back to 3%.

Downward revisions were made across the regions (see table below), with the exception of Central and Eastern Europe, where rebounding ad markets are performing stronger than anticipated, and are now set to grow at 10.1% in 2011, compared to 9.5% previously expected.

By media, digital remains the driving force in the market in terms of growth, continuing to outstrip other media sectors, followed by out of home and television.

At current prices, Carat now expects magazines to shift from a slight growth of 0.3% to a fall of 0.4% around the world this year. However, radio has seen the biggest revision for 2011, with 6.1% growth in ad spend now cut back to 4%.  

Year on year % growth at current prices

2011 2012
Global 5.0 (5.7) 6.0 (6.2)
North America 3.2 (3.9) 5.5 (5.9)
Western Europe 2.3 (3.5) 3.0 (3.3)
Central & Eastern Europe 10.1 (9.5) 11.6 (11.9)
Asia Pacific 7.1 (8.0) 6.9 (7.0)
Latin America 13.0 (13.0) 12.9 (12.9)

Global % share of advertising spend

2011 2012
Television 46.0 (46.1) 46.1 (46.3)
Newspapers 16.2 (15.8) 15.4 (15.0)
Magazines 10.0 (10.2) 9.6 (9.8)
Radio 7.1 (7.3) 7.1 (7.3)
Cinema 0.6 (0.6) 0.6 (0.6)
Out of home 7.1 (7.0) 7.2 (7.1)
Digital 13.0 (13.0) 14.0 (14.0)

Global year on year % growth at current prices

2011 2012
Television 6.0 (6.7) 6.2 (6.5)
Newspapers 0.1 (0.3) 0.6 (0.6)
Magazines -0.4 (0.3) 2.3 (2.0)
Radio
4.0 (-6.1) 5.5 (6.5)
Cinema 5.2 (5.6) 3.8 (5.6)
Out of home 6.3 (7.2) 8.1 (7.8)
Digital 13.3 (13.6) 14.4 (14.5)

Have your say...

Before commenting please read our rules for commenting on articles.

If you see a comment you find offensive, you can flag it as inappropriate. In the top right-hand corner of an individual comment, you will see 'flag as inappropriate'. Clicking this prompts us to review the comment. For further information see our rules for commenting on articles.

comments powered by Disqus
Media Week Jobs
Search for more media jobs

Latest

Waitrose boosts content strategy with 'Weekend Kitchen with Waitrose' C4 tie-up

Waitrose boosts content strategy with 'Weekend Kitchen with Waitrose' C4 tie-up

Waitrose has joined forces with Channel 4 and produced a Saturday morning lifestyle and cookery programme called 'Weekend Kitchen with Waitrose', with TV presenters Lisa Snowdon and Steve Jones signed up to front it.

Share
Newspaper ABCs: Guardian smashes through 100m browsers in March 2014

Newspaper ABCs: Guardian smashes through 100m browsers in March 2014

The Guardian reached more than 100 million monthly unique browsers for the first time in March, according to Audit Bureau of Circulations figures published today.

Share
Toyota achieves the impossible by calming angry Roman drivers

Toyota achieves the impossible by calming angry Roman drivers

Italians swearing and shouting while sitting behind the wheels of their cars and negotiating the busy streets of Rome could become a thing of the past if they all start driving Toyota's Hybrid vehicles, implies a short film for the car brand.

Share

Get news by email